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Hints of Economic Recovery and Possible Impact on Real Estate - May 2009
Responding to the signs of global recession, Indian stock markets had crashed in October 08. However, the markets have rebounded smartly since March and a definite upward thrust is visible now. .........Exclusive Ventures -Apr 2009
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1.0 Rising Stocks Kindle Real Estate Market Rebound Expectation
The Indian stock markets had been struggling to post decent daily turnover till early March with news of extended global economic slow down, driving away buyers. Thhe recent news from across the world indicates that the global recession would not be as prolonged as it was originally thought to be. The industrial production index in different countries which had taken a beating, is starting to look up, with China leading the way. US is now abound with expectations of earlier rebound.
The whiff of a turn-around, has been sufficient for markets to go up by 45% over 2 months. Sensex was below 8500 level in first week of March, after having moved up and down in the range of 8200 to 9500 from October 08. Since early March, there has only been consistent upward movement. The sustained positive movement has taken Sensex to 12100 on May 4th.
Its quite possible that the stock market would crash, if election results throws up uncertainty. But the underlying positive economic outlook which has caused the index to reach levels of 12100, would ensure that any such crashes will get squared up, within the next few months.
So over the medium term, looks like, the market is sensing a recovery of the general economy. This recovery could ease cash flow of individuals and businessmen, prompting them to bring out cash, on which they have been sitting tight. Certain sectors like IT could take more time to come back, on track.
2.0 Real Estate Price Movement During the Above Period
With economic slow down affecting almost every individual whether in IT, Traditional Industry or business, purchase of property was of least priority. Since October 2008, the real estate purchases have fallen drastically and this resulted in crashing of apartment prices. From incredible levels of Rs.3500 to 4500/sft, the basic rate have come down to Rs.2500 to 3000/sft for very good Integrated Projects.
The standalone apartments in and around city came down from Rs.2500 to 3000/sft to Rs.1800 to 2500/sft range.
The price fall has got stabilized and last 2 months have NOT seen any further crash. This is quite visible in the market and the buyers who came-in from abroad, looking for deals and hoping that builders will crack further, on negotiation, have all gone back empty handed.
What buyers now need to worry about is their potential loss, if properties are not picked up before prices actually perk up.
3.0 Impact on Real Estate
Consistent with the stock market trend, stocks of almost all Real Estate companies like DLF, Unitech etc have also gone up by 40 to 60%. This will create a sense of well being among builders and further property rate cuts, will not happen.
Now the question that buyers would want answer for is when would the prices start rising? And whether a buyer would miss the bus?
Real Estate prices will react in each city, based on the current availability of units, number of upcoming projects and any local issues which could influence the matter. If we take Hyderabad, the fact is that no new projects have really gone into construction since last 6 to 8 months, though few projects were announced.
The moment there is an uptrend in economy, transactions will start taking place. Once Developers get a feeling that they could get certain bookings over say 3 month period, rate will start creeping up on the back of the reducing built-up stock, since sizable inventory will not get added, for at least another 1.5 years. The proposal to increase the housing loan amount cap from 20L to 30L for the special lowest slab of interest, would help in increasing transaction volume
In Hyderabad, unless the Telengana issue becomes very hot, the prices are likely to go up considering the above.
As a buyer, be alert to the happenings in the market and pick up before the positive trend starts impacting the base prices significantly.
Track the best legally safe projects, to buy at low rates:
>>APH220 behind Lanco Hills (The low was Rs.2250/sft. Company has raised rates to Rs.2400/sft. We may be able to get Rs.2250/sft for sometime)
>>APH216 by CEWS. The Project has powered ahead and only few units are available to book.
>>GB224- This is a PROPOSED Villa Project near Gopanpalli/Tellapur at very low rate compared to existing projects. Hope to turn around and bring this to booking stage, before prices move up. Mail to get Alerted in Advance
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